LIVE QUANT RESEARCH · 18 ACTIVE MARKETS · CALIBRATED Q2 2026
Find where
the market
is wrong.
Independent ML models price every contract from scratch — then we surface the gap. Sized, signed, and honest about where we have no edge.
MODEL BRIER (MACRO)
0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE
-0.029
MARKETS RESOLVED
1,072
LIVE EDGE
UPDATED MOMENTS AGO 01
OpenAI releases a model marketed as 'GPT-6' before Q4 2026
62% → 39%
−23.0pp
02
Fed cuts rates by 25bps at June FOMC meeting
34% → 51%
+17.0pp
03
Tesla launches public robotaxi service in ≥3 US cities by Q3 2026
48% → 62%
+14.0pp
18 ACTIVE · 12 W/ REAL EDGE
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AS OF 07:12 PM
Today's biggest mispricings
Markets where our model disagrees most with the consensus.
Tech Manifold
▼ OpenAI releases a model marketed as 'GPT-6' before Q4 2026
Market
62%
Model
39%
Edge
−23.0pp
Macro Polymarket
▲ Fed cuts rates by 25bps at June FOMC meeting
Market
34%
Model
51%
Edge
+17.0pp
Tech Kalshi
▲ Tesla launches public robotaxi service in ≥3 US cities by Q3 2026
Market
48%
Model
62%
Edge
+14.0pp
FEATURED · DEEP DIVE
Tech watch
All markets
Real edge in blue. Efficient markets sit honestly grey —
we have no signal there.
Tech Manifold
B+
OpenAI releases a model marketed as 'GPT-6' before Q4 2026
MKT62%
MODEL39%
−23.0pp
VOL $410k
LIVE
Macro Polymarket
B+
Fed cuts rates by 25bps at June FOMC meeting
MKT34%
MODEL51%
+17.0pp
VOL $4.8M
LIVE
Tech Kalshi
B
Tesla launches public robotaxi service in ≥3 US cities by Q3 2026
MKT48%
MODEL62%
+14.0pp
VOL $730k
LIVE
Crypto Kalshi
B
Bitcoin closes above $150,000 by Dec 31, 2026
MKT28%
MODEL41%
+13.0pp
VOL $2.1M
LIVE
Tech Kalshi
B
OpenAI reports >$25B in annualized revenue by Q4 2026
MKT44%
MODEL57%
+13.0pp
VOL $620k
LIVE
Culture Polymarket
C+
An A24 film wins Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards
MKT24%
MODEL34%
+10.0pp
VOL $380k
LIVE
Politics Polymarket
C+
UK holds a snap general election before Mar 2027
MKT18%
MODEL27%
+9.0pp
VOL $920k
LIVE
Macro Polymarket
B+
ECB cuts deposit rate by ≥25bps at July meeting
MKT66%
MODEL74%
+8.0pp
VOL $2.2M
LIVE
Politics Kalshi
B-
ByteDance divests TikTok US operations before Jan 1, 2027
MKT41%
MODEL34%
−7.0pp
VOL $1.3M
LIVE
Culture Manifold
C
A song released after Jun 1 2026 tops Billboard Hot 100 for 4+ weeks
MKT36%
MODEL42%
+6.0pp
VOL $145k
LIVE
Politics Polymarket
B
Democrats retake the US House in the 2026 midterm
MKT58%
MODEL64%
+6.0pp
VOL $5.2M
LIVE
Macro Polymarket
B+
US enters NBER-defined recession before end of 2026
MKT31%
MODEL26%
−5.0pp
VOL $3.4M
LIVE
Crypto Kalshi
B
Solana trades above $200 at any point in July 2026
MKT51%
MODEL49%
−2.0pp
VOL $870k
EFFICIENT
Sports DraftKings
C
LA Lakers reach the NBA Finals in 2026
MKT19%
MODEL21%
+2.0pp
VOL $1.8M
EFFICIENT
Sports PrizePicks
C
Dodgers win the 2026 World Series
MKT16%
MODEL18%
+2.0pp
VOL $920k
EFFICIENT
Macro Kalshi
A-
S&P 500 sets a new all-time closing high in June
MKT55%
MODEL56%
+1.0pp
VOL $6.3M
EFFICIENT
Crypto Polymarket
A
ETH market cap exceeds BTC market cap any time in 2026
MKT7%
MODEL6%
−1.0pp
VOL $1.1M
EFFICIENT
Tech Manifold
C
A major lab publicly claims to have built AGI in 2026
MKT22%
MODEL21%
−1.0pp
VOL $195k
EFFICIENT