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RESEARCH / TECH / KALSHI
OpenAI reports >$25B in annualized revenue by Q4 2026
B CONFIDENCE
MARKET
44.0%
MODEL
57.0%
EDGE
+13.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Enterprise seat-count run-rate +180% YoY
↑ 58%
API token-volume telemetry (proxy)
↑ 46%
Consumer price-ladder change (Pro tiers)
↑ 33%
Competitive pressure on margin (Anthropic, GDM)
↓ 31%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 51% – 63%
BRIER (TECH) 0.218
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.004
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 174
We have measurable edge in tech over 174 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | OpenAI ARR >$3B by EOY 2024 | YES | 81% |
| 2025-12-31 | OpenAI ARR >$15B by EOY 2025 | YES | 66% |
| 2025-06-30 | Anthropic ARR >$3B by Q2 2025 | YES | 58% |