Understand the
markets we model.
Independent, sourced explainers on how prediction markets work, how they're regulated, and how the major platforms compare. Every statistic here is linked to a primary source.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Full 2026 Comparison
A current, head-to-head breakdown of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026 — regulation, fees, settlement, liquidity, fiat vs crypto, and which platform fits which trader.
Guides
1 articleExplainers
2 articlesHow Event Contracts Are Regulated by the CFTC in 2026
A clear, sourced 2026 guide to how the CFTC regulates event contracts: Designated Contract Markets, self-certification, the special rule, the resolved Kalshi litigation, and why "regulated derivative" matters for traders.
What Are Prediction Markets? A 2026 Guide for Traders
A 2026 trader's guide to prediction markets: how event-contract prices map to probability, the binary/categorical/scalar contract types, the major venues, the wisdom-of-crowds basis, and the real accuracy evidence and risks.
Platform Reviews
4 articlesKalshi vs Polymarket: Full 2026 Comparison
A current, head-to-head breakdown of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026 — regulation, fees, settlement, liquidity, fiat vs crypto, and which platform fits which trader.
DraftKings Predictions vs Traditional Sportsbooks: What's Different
DraftKings Predictions is a CFTC-regulated event-contract platform, not a sportsbook. The core difference is structural: peer-to-peer exchange with fees versus betting against the house and its vig.
Manifold Markets Review 2026: Play-Money, Real Signal
A 2026 review of Manifold Markets: how play-money "mana" works, the user-created market model, the 2024 sweepstakes detour and 2025 reversal, forecasting accuracy, open API, and who the platform actually suits.
PrizePicks Predictions: How a DFS Company Entered Prediction Markets
PrizePicks, the largest US daily-fantasy pick-em operator, launched Kalshi-powered prediction markets in November 2025 after years of state legal pressure pushed pick-em DFS toward CFTC-regulated event contracts.