WORLD CUP 2026 · MATCH FORECAST MODEL v0.1 · LIVE TRACKING

Our forecasts, graded in real time.

Before the tournament we published a probability for all 72 matches. As they play, we score each one honestly; for matches still to come, we show our current number beside the live market. Calibrated probability estimates — not a betting signal, and no edge claims.

LIVE TOURNAMENT BRIER · 24/72 PLAYED

0.6729

backtest avg 0.5135 no-skill base 0.6336

Currently above the backtest — the group openers ran upset-heavy and 24 matches is a small, high-variance sample. We show it honestly rather than wait for a flattering number. Multiclass Brier, lower is better; same scale as the backtest.

Upcoming

OUR CURRENT MODEL vs THE LIVE MARKET · 48 MATCHES

Model uses ratings through 2026-06-17. Market shown separately for Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket — never averaged. Market updated 2026-06-18 17:16:14 UTC.

Canada v Qatar Jun 18 · host

Our model	74	18	8
Kalshi ↗	76	17	9	deep
Polymarket ↗	75	18	9	deep

model in line with market

Czech Republic v South Africa Jun 18

Our model	50	26	24
Kalshi ↗	77	20	5	deep
Polymarket ↗	74	22	7	deep

Mexico v South Korea Jun 18 · host

Our model	56	25	19
Kalshi ↗	48	30	24	deep
Polymarket ↗	48	30	25	deep

Switzerland v Bosnia and Herzegovina Jun 18

Our model	63	22	14
Kalshi ↗	63	24	14	deep
Polymarket ↗	63	24	14	deep

model in line with market

Brazil v Haiti Jun 19

Our model	73	19	9
Kalshi ↗	89	8	5	deep
Polymarket ↗	89	8	4	deep

Scotland v Morocco Jun 19

Our model	24	26	50
Kalshi ↗	19	26	56	deep
Polymarket ↗	18	27	56	deep

Turkey v Paraguay Jun 19

Our model	42	27	31
Kalshi ↗	49	28	25	deep
Polymarket ↗	47	28	25	deep

United States v Australia Jun 19 · host

Our model	39	27	34
Kalshi ↗	62	22	18	deep
Polymarket ↗	61	22	18	deep

Ecuador v Curaçao Jun 20

Our model	74	18	8
Kalshi ↗	89	9	4	deep
Polymarket ↗	88	9	4	deep

Germany v Ivory Coast Jun 20

Our model	53	25	22
Kalshi ↗	65	21	17	deep
Polymarket ↗	64	21	17	deep

Netherlands v Sweden Jun 20

Our model	56	24	19
Kalshi ↗	56	25	20	deep
Polymarket ↗	56	25	20	deep

model in line with market

Tunisia v Japan Jun 20

Our model	12	21	68
Kalshi ↗	14	24	65	deep
Polymarket ↗	13	24	64	deep

model in line with market

Belgium v Iran Jun 21

Our model	43	27	30
Kalshi ↗	69	20	12	deep
Polymarket ↗	69	21	12	deep

New Zealand v Egypt Jun 21

Our model	29	27	45
Kalshi ↗	17	24	61	deep
Polymarket ↗	17	24	61	deep

Spain v Saudi Arabia Jun 21

Our model	80	15	5
Kalshi ↗	89	9	5	deep
Polymarket ↗	89	9	4	deep

Uruguay v Cape Verde Jun 21

Our model	65	22	13
Kalshi ↗	67	23	12	deep
Polymarket ↗	67	23	12	deep

model in line with market

Argentina v Austria Jun 22

Our model	66	22	13
Kalshi ↗	63	24	16	deep
Polymarket ↗	62	24	16	deep

model in line with market

France v Iraq Jun 22

Our model	77	17	7
Kalshi ↗	90	8	4	deep
Polymarket ↗	89	8	3	deep

Jordan v Algeria Jun 22

Our model	24	26	50
Kalshi ↗	16	23	62	deep
Polymarket ↗	16	24	62	deep

Norway v Senegal Jun 22

Our model	47	26	26
Kalshi ↗	43	27	32	deep
Polymarket ↗	42	28	32	deep

Colombia v DR Congo Jun 23

Our model	67	21	12
Kalshi ↗	66	23	14	deep
Polymarket ↗	65	23	13	deep

model in line with market

England v Ghana Jun 23

Our model	78	16	6
Kalshi ↗	81	14	7	deep
Polymarket ↗	81	14	7	deep

model in line with market

Panama v Croatia Jun 23

Our model	24	26	51
Kalshi ↗	14	24	64	deep
Polymarket ↗	14	24	64	deep

Portugal v Uzbekistan Jun 23

Our model	60	23	17
Kalshi ↗	82	13	6	deep
Polymarket ↗	81	14	6	deep

Bosnia and Herzegovina v Qatar Jun 24

Our model	45	27	28
Kalshi ↗	62	23	16	deep
Polymarket ↗	62	24	16	deep

Canada v Switzerland Jun 24 · host

Our model	41	27	32
Kalshi ↗	28	28	46	deep
Polymarket ↗	28	28	46	moderate

model in line with market

Mexico v Czech Republic Jun 24 · host

Our model	68	21	11
Kalshi ↗	55	26	21	deep
Polymarket ↗	54	27	21	moderate

Morocco v Haiti Jun 24

Our model	67	21	12
Kalshi ↗	76	17	9	deep
Polymarket ↗	76	17	9	moderate

Scotland v Brazil Jun 24

Our model	18	24	58
Kalshi ↗	14	18	69	deep
Polymarket ↗	14	19	70	deep

South Africa v South Korea Jun 24

Our model	15	23	62
Kalshi ↗	16	23	65	deep
Polymarket ↗	16	23	64	deep

model in line with market

Curaçao v Ivory Coast Jun 25

Our model	14	22	64
Kalshi ↗	6	11	86	deep
Polymarket ↗	6	11	86	deep

Ecuador v Germany Jun 25

Our model	33	27	40
Kalshi ↗	19	23	59	deep
Polymarket ↗	20	24	57	deep

Japan v Sweden Jun 25

Our model	55	25	20
Kalshi ↗	46	27	28	deep
Polymarket ↗	46	28	28	deep

Paraguay v Australia Jun 25

Our model	28	27	46
Kalshi ↗	44	28	28	deep
Polymarket ↗	45	28	28	moderate

model in line with market

Tunisia v Netherlands Jun 25

Our model	11	20	69
Kalshi ↗	10	16	75	deep
Polymarket ↗	10	16	75	moderate

United States v Turkey Jun 25 · host

Our model	43	27	30
Kalshi ↗	43	25	35	deep
Polymarket ↗	43	26	34	deep

model in line with market

Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia Jun 26

Our model	33	27	40
Kalshi ↗	34	26	41	deep
Polymarket ↗	35	27	41	moderate

model in line with market

Egypt v Iran Jun 26

Our model	30	27	43
Kalshi ↗	47	28	25	deep
Polymarket ↗	47	30	25	moderate

model in line with market

New Zealand v Belgium Jun 26

Our model	18	24	58
Kalshi ↗	8	14	79	deep
Polymarket ↗	8	14	79	moderate

Norway v France Jun 26

Our model	22	25	53
Kalshi ↗	23	24	55	deep
Polymarket ↗	23	25	55	deep

model in line with market

Senegal v Iraq Jun 26

Our model	55	25	20
Kalshi ↗	73	18	10	deep
Polymarket ↗	72	18	11	moderate

Uruguay v Spain Jun 26

Our model	16	23	61
Kalshi ↗	16	22	64	deep
Polymarket ↗	16	23	64	moderate

model in line with market

Algeria v Austria Jun 27

Our model	31	27	42
Kalshi ↗	32	32	38	deep
Polymarket ↗	32	33	38	deep

model in line with market

Colombia v Portugal Jun 27

Our model	42	27	31
Kalshi ↗	28	26	46	deep
Polymarket ↗	28	27	47	deep

model in line with market

Croatia v Ghana Jun 27

Our model	64	22	14
Kalshi ↗	60	25	17	deep
Polymarket ↗	60	25	16	deep

model in line with market

DR Congo v Uzbekistan Jun 27

Our model	34	27	38
Kalshi ↗	46	26	28	deep
Polymarket ↗	47	26	30	deep

Jordan v Argentina Jun 27

Our model	6	16	79
Kalshi ↗	7	12	83	deep
Polymarket ↗	6	13	82	moderate

model in line with market

Panama v England Jun 27

Our model	11	21	68
Kalshi ↗	9	14	78	deep
Polymarket ↗	10	14	78	deep

Played

OUR PRE-TOURNAMENT FORECAST vs THE RESULT · 24 MATCHES

These forecasts were frozen before kickoff (ratings as of 2026-06-11) and are never updated — that is what makes the Brier honest. Lower Brier = better (0 perfect · 0.5135 backtest avg · 0.6336 no-skill).

England v Croatia Jun 17

49 26 25

England 4–2 Croatia · England win

BRIER 0.38

Ghana v Panama Jun 17

16 23 60

Ghana 1–0 Panama · Ghana win

BRIER 1.12

Portugal v DR Congo Jun 17

66 22 13

Portugal 1–1 DR Congo (draw)

BRIER 1.06

Uzbekistan v Colombia Jun 17

15 23 62

Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia · Colombia win

BRIER 0.22

Argentina v Algeria Jun 16

68 21 12

Argentina 3–0 Algeria · Argentina win

BRIER 0.16

Austria v Jordan Jun 16

49 26 25

Austria 3–1 Jordan · Austria win

BRIER 0.39

France v Senegal Jun 16

59 24 17

France 3–1 Senegal · France win

BRIER 0.26

Iraq v Norway Jun 16

16 23 61

Iraq 1–4 Norway · Norway win

BRIER 0.23

Belgium v Egypt Jun 15

52 25 22

Belgium 1–1 Egypt (draw)

BRIER 0.88

Iran v New Zealand Jun 15

54 25 21

Iran 2–2 New Zealand (draw)

BRIER 0.90

Saudi Arabia v Uruguay Jun 15

13 22 65

Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay (draw)

BRIER 1.06

Spain v Cape Verde Jun 15

84 12 3

Spain 0–0 Cape Verde (draw)

BRIER 1.48

Germany v Curaçao Jun 14

75 18 8

Germany 7–1 Curaçao · Germany win

BRIER 0.10

Ivory Coast v Ecuador Jun 14

17 24 59

Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador · Ivory Coast win

BRIER 1.09

Netherlands v Japan Jun 14

38 27 35

Netherlands 2–2 Japan (draw)

BRIER 0.80

Sweden v Tunisia Jun 14

40 27 33

Sweden 5–1 Tunisia · Sweden win

BRIER 0.54

Australia v Turkey Jun 13

30 27 44

Australia 2–0 Turkey · Australia win

BRIER 0.76

Brazil v Morocco Jun 13

45 27 28

Brazil 1–1 Morocco (draw)

BRIER 0.82

Haiti v Scotland Jun 13

23 26 51

Haiti 0–1 Scotland · Scotland win

BRIER 0.36

Qatar v Switzerland Jun 13

8 18 74

Qatar 1–1 Switzerland (draw)

BRIER 1.23

Canada v Bosnia and Herzegovina Jun 12

71 19 10

Canada 1–1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (draw)

BRIER 1.16

United States v Paraguay Jun 12

37 27 36

United States 4–1 Paraguay · United States win

BRIER 0.59

Mexico v South Africa Jun 11

76 17 7

Mexico 2–0 South Africa · Mexico win

BRIER 0.09

South Korea v Czech Republic Jun 11

45 27 28

South Korea 2–1 Czech Republic · South Korea win

BRIER 0.46

MODEL RELIABILITY (BACKTEST)

held-out 2018–26

The model's calibration on 8,000 held-out matches before this tournament. The live tournament Brier above measures how that calibration is holding up in real time.

HOW TO READ THIS PAGE

Upcoming — our current model (updated as matches play) next to live Kalshi and Polymarket prices, shown separately.

Played — our pre-tournament forecast (frozen before kickoff) vs the result, scored by Brier.

We never say "edge", never average the two venues, and never hide a match where we agree with the market — or one we got wrong.

Full method & limits on the methodology page.

NOT FINANCIAL
ADVICE.

MispriceHQ publishes independent probability estimates for educational and research purposes. Models can be wrong; market microstructure can shift overnight; tails do tail. We don't take positions, we don't route orders, and we are not your fiduciary. Risk of total loss is real and material.

Event contracts on Kalshi are regulated derivatives traded under CFTC oversight; other venues operate under their own jurisdictions. By using this site you acknowledge our methodology, our calibration, and that the numbers above describe the past — not the future.