Quant research
for prediction
markets.
MispriceHQ is building independent models to score event contracts on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and other venues against an independent fit — then publish the gap, sized and signed, calibrated against what actually happens. The engine is in development; the site today is a design preview with sample data.
We're building independent statistical and ML models for prediction-market questions across macro, crypto, technology, politics, sports, and culture. Once live, each model will be graded against realized outcomes — Brier scores, reliability diagrams, and per-category calibration — using the approach on the Methodology page.
Where we have edge, the UI will say so in blue. Where we don't, it will say so in grey. That honesty is the product. Until the engine ships, everything on the site is clearly-marked sample data.
Where the product is and what ships next. Dates are targets, not promises — we'll update this page as milestones land.
Our written research follows the same honesty rules as our models. Specifically:
- Every statistic is linked to a primary or reputable secondary source. If we can't source it, we don't state it.
- Articles carry a visible author, publish date, and last-updated date. Material corrections are noted.
- We separate fact from interpretation, and we say plainly when something is uncertain or still developing.
- Financial topics carry a risk disclaimer. We don't give individualized financial advice.
Found an error? Email research@mispricehq.com and we'll correct it.
As of today, MispriceHQ has no affiliate or referral relationships and earns nothing from any platform.
Links to platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold are plain, untagged links to their homepages. In the
future we may join prediction-market referral programs and earn a commission when you sign up through our links.
If and when that happens, we will mark those links clearly (rel="sponsored" plus a visible notice) and
update this disclosure. Affiliate relationships will never influence our model output or which markets we flag —
the numbers are computed independently of any commercial relationship.
One email when live predictions launch. Nothing else.
No spam. One email when live predictions launch. We never share your address.