← Back ABOUT MISPRICEHQ
Quant research
for prediction
markets.
MispriceHQ scores every event contract on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, and partner venues against an independent model fit. Where our number disagrees with the market, we publish the gap — sized, signed, and calibrated against what actually happened.
WHAT WE DO
We run independent statistical and ML models on prediction-market questions across macro, crypto, technology, politics, sports, and culture. Each model is graded against realized outcomes — Brier scores, reliability diagrams, and per-category calibration are published on the Methodology page.
Where we have edge, the UI says so in blue. Where we don't, it says so in grey. That honesty is the product.
WHAT WE DON'T DO
·
We don't take positions. No house book, no proprietary trading, no skin in the game.
·
We don't route orders. We link out to platforms — those are regulated derivatives venues
and your relationship is with them, not us.
·
We don't dress up uncertainty. If a category is noisy, the calibration page admits it.
·
We don't sell signals as advice. Every page carries a disclaimer for a reason.
CONTACT