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RESEARCH / TECH / MANIFOLD
OpenAI releases a model marketed as 'GPT-6' before Q4 2026
B+ CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
62.0%
MODEL
39.0%
EDGE
−23.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Hiring signals on public job boards (frontier roles)
↑ 51%
Compute capacity announcements (Q1 datacenter)
↓ 44%
Founder commentary tone (NLP score, last 90d)
↓ 28%
Roadmap revisions in last 90d
↓ 37%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 33% – 45%
BRIER (TECH) 0.218
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.004
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 174
We have measurable edge in tech over 174 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-13 | OpenAI launches GPT-4o | YES | 82% |
| 2024-09-12 | OpenAI releases o1 reasoning model | YES | 61% |
| 2025-02-02 | OpenAI releases 'GPT-5' branded model | NO | 34% |