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RESEARCH / TECH / MANIFOLD
A major lab publicly claims to have built AGI in 2026
C CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
22.0%
MODEL
21.0%
EDGE
−1.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Resolution-criteria ambiguity (rater disagreement)
↓ 51%
Frontier lab marketing tone (NLP, last 90d)
↑ 33%
Benchmark saturation rate (MMLU/HLE/SWE-bench)
↑ 37%
Internal scaling-law softening signals
↓ 28%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 15% – 27%
BRIER (TECH) 0.218
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.004
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 174
We have no statistically meaningful edge in tech yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-15 | GPT-4 declared AGI by OpenAI | NO | 12% |
| 2025-12-31 | AGI claim in 2025 | NO | 18% |
| 2024-12-20 | o3 declared AGI | NO | 22% |