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RESEARCH / TECH / KALSHI
Tesla launches public robotaxi service in ≥3 US cities by Q3 2026
B CONFIDENCE
MARKET
48.0%
MODEL
62.0%
EDGE
+14.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Permit filings tracker (Austin, Phoenix, LA)
↑ 57%
Fleet supervisor hiring +220% YoY
↑ 41%
Optimus messaging crowding out RT comms
↓ 29%
Historical Tesla deadline slippage
↓ 38%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 56% – 68%
BRIER (TECH) 0.218
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.004
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 174
We have measurable edge in tech over 174 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-08 | Tesla unveils Cybercab on schedule | NO | 55% |
| 2023-06-15 | Tesla FSD v12 ships by Q3 2023 | NO | 41% |
| 2024-12-31 | Waymo serves >5 US cities by EOY 2024 | YES | 78% |