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RESEARCH / MACRO / KALSHI
S&P 500 sets a new all-time closing high in June
A- CONFIDENCE
MARKET
55.0%
MODEL
56.0%
EDGE
+1.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Trailing 60d realized vol below 1y median
↑ 45%
Earnings revisions ratio positive Q1
↑ 38%
Already within 1.4% of ATH at month start
↑ 42%
Term-premium widening signal
↓ 29%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 50% – 62%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have no statistically meaningful edge in macro yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-28 | SPX new ATH June 2024 | YES | 61% |
| 2025-06-30 | SPX new ATH June 2025 | NO | 42% |
| 2023-06-30 | SPX new ATH June 2023 | NO | 31% |