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RESEARCH / MACRO / KALSHI
S&P 500 sets a new all-time closing high in June
A- CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
55.0%
MODEL
56.0%
EDGE
+1.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Trailing 60d realized vol below 1y median
↑ 45%
Earnings revisions ratio positive Q1
↑ 38%
Already within 1.4% of ATH at month start
↑ 42%
Term-premium widening signal
↓ 29%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 50% – 62%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have no statistically meaningful edge in macro yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-28 | SPX new ATH June 2024 | YES | 61% |
| 2025-06-30 | SPX new ATH June 2025 | NO | 42% |
| 2023-06-30 | SPX new ATH June 2023 | NO | 31% |