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RESEARCH / MACRO / POLYMARKET
US enters NBER-defined recession before end of 2026
B+ CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
31.0%
MODEL
26.0%
EDGE
−5.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Yield-curve un-inversion completed Q4'25
↓ 49%
Sahm rule trigger probability under 18%
↓ 44%
Layoff announcements above trend (tech)
↑ 33%
Real consumer spending +0.4% MoM
↓ 36%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 20% – 32%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have measurable edge in macro over 312 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-30 | US recession before EOY 2023 | NO | 32% |
| 2024-06-30 | US recession before EOY 2024 | NO | 21% |
| 2020-04-01 | US recession in 2020 | YES | 93% |