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RESEARCH / MACRO / POLYMARKET
ECB cuts deposit rate by ≥25bps at July meeting
B+ CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
66.0%
MODEL
74.0%
EDGE
+8.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Eurozone HICP within ECB target band 3 mo
↑ 61%
Bund-Bobl curve pricing −24bp at meeting
↑ 55%
Lagarde post-meeting tone (last 2 pressers)
↑ 38%
Stickier services inflation print Apr
↓ 32%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 68% – 80%
BRIER (MACRO) 0.182
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.029
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 312
We have measurable edge in macro over 312 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-06 | ECB cuts ≥25bps June 2025 | YES | 79% |
| 2024-06-06 | ECB first cut June 2024 | YES | 82% |
| 2025-09-12 | ECB cuts ≥25bps Sep 2025 | YES | 66% |