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RESEARCH / POLITICS / KALSHI
ByteDance divests TikTok US operations before Jan 1, 2027
B- CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
41.0%
MODEL
34.0%
EDGE
−7.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Court timeline pushed to Q4 hearings
↓ 46%
ByteDance public stance unchanged 8 mo
↓ 39%
Executive deal speculation (NLP score)
↑ 27%
Bipartisan congressional pressure index
↑ 34%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 28% – 40%
BRIER (POLITICS) 0.209
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.006
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 142
We have measurable edge in politics over 142 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-24 | PAFACA signed into law | YES | 71% |
| 2025-01-19 | TikTok ban takes effect | NO | 38% |
| 2020-09-14 | Trump-era TikTok forced sale | NO | 42% |