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RESEARCH / POLITICS / POLYMARKET
UK holds a snap general election before Mar 2027
C+ CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
18.0%
MODEL
27.0%
EDGE
+9.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Polling base rate, last 60 days (gov −9 pts)
↑ 54%
Betting volume regime vs. 3mo (3.2× normal)
↑ 31%
Historical comparable timing (post-budget cycle)
↓ 42%
Party-leader public statements (PM denies)
↓ 26%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 21% – 33%
BRIER (POLITICS) 0.209
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.006
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 142
We have measurable edge in politics over 142 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-04 | UK general election before end 2024 | YES | 79% |
| 2019-12-12 | UK snap election in 2019 | YES | 65% |
| 2017-06-08 | UK snap election in 2017 | YES | 71% |