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RESEARCH / CRYPTO / POLYMARKET
ETH market cap exceeds BTC market cap any time in 2026
A CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
7.0%
MODEL
6.0%
EDGE
−1.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Current ratio 0.41× BTC mcap (requires +145%)
↓ 51%
Spot ETH/BTC ratio mean-reverting
↓ 34%
L2 fee compression vs. BTC narrative
↑ 22%
Historical max ratio in 5y was 0.85
↓ 31%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 0% – 12%
BRIER (CRYPTO) 0.196
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.028
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 248
We have no statistically meaningful edge in crypto yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-12 | ETH/BTC flippening 2017 | NO | 8% |
| 2021-11-09 | ETH/BTC flippening 2021 | NO | 9% |
| 2025-12-31 | ETH/BTC flippening 2025 | NO | 5% |