← Back
RESEARCH / CRYPTO / KALSHI
Bitcoin closes above $150,000 by Dec 31, 2026
B CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
28.0%
MODEL
41.0%
EDGE
+13.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Spot ETF cumulative inflow regime > $40B
↑ 58%
On-chain flow to exchanges declining 14 wk
↑ 45%
Realized vol below 1y median (annualized 38%)
↑ 39%
Macro liquidity tightening risk (M2 contraction)
↓ 33%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 35% – 47%
BRIER (CRYPTO) 0.196
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.028
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 248
We have measurable edge in crypto over 248 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | BTC closes 2024 above $100k | NO | 44% |
| 2025-12-31 | BTC closes 2025 above $120k | YES | 51% |
| 2024-03-15 | BTC ATH in Q1 2024 | YES | 72% |