← Back
RESEARCH / CRYPTO / KALSHI
Bitcoin closes above $150,000 by Dec 31, 2026
B CONFIDENCE
MARKET
28.0%
MODEL
41.0%
EDGE
+13.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Spot ETF cumulative inflow regime > $40B
↑ 58%
On-chain flow to exchanges declining 14 wk
↑ 45%
Realized vol below 1y median (annualized 38%)
↑ 39%
Macro liquidity tightening risk (M2 contraction)
↓ 33%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 35% – 47%
BRIER (CRYPTO) 0.196
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.028
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 248
We have measurable edge in crypto over 248 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | BTC closes 2024 above $100k | NO | 44% |
| 2025-12-31 | BTC closes 2025 above $120k | YES | 51% |
| 2024-03-15 | BTC ATH in Q1 2024 | YES | 72% |