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RESEARCH / CULTURE / POLYMARKET
An A24 film wins Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards
C+ CONFIDENCE
MARKET
24.0%
MODEL
34.0%
EDGE
+10.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Critic-aggregator score for lead contender (top 3)
↑ 52%
Precursor awards correlation (Globes, BAFTAs)
↑ 48%
Box-office crossover penalty (independent class)
↓ 29%
Voting body composition shift (last 4y)
↑ 34%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 28% – 40%
BRIER (CULTURE) 0.226
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.008
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 100
We have measurable edge in culture over 100 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-12 | A24 wins Best Picture 2023 | YES | 61% |
| 2024-03-10 | A24 wins Best Picture 2024 | NO | 41% |
| 2025-03-02 | A24 wins Best Picture 2025 | NO | 28% |