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RESEARCH / CULTURE / POLYMARKET
An A24 film wins Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards
C+ CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
24.0%
MODEL
34.0%
EDGE
+10.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
Critic-aggregator score for lead contender (top 3)
↑ 52%
Precursor awards correlation (Globes, BAFTAs)
↑ 48%
Box-office crossover penalty (independent class)
↓ 29%
Voting body composition shift (last 4y)
↑ 34%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 28% – 40%
BRIER (CULTURE) 0.226
VS MARKET BASELINE -0.008
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 100
We have measurable edge in culture over 100 resolved markets. Edge ≠ certainty — the 90% CI is wide because base rates here are noisy.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-12 | A24 wins Best Picture 2023 | YES | 61% |
| 2024-03-10 | A24 wins Best Picture 2024 | NO | 41% |
| 2025-03-02 | A24 wins Best Picture 2025 | NO | 28% |