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RESEARCH / SPORTS / PRIZEPICKS
Dodgers win the 2026 World Series
C CONFIDENCE
Sample market — design preview only. No real model output. The probabilities, edge, confidence grade, drivers and chart below are placeholder data while our ML engine is in development. Get notified at launch.
MARKET
16.0%
MODEL
18.0%
EDGE
+2.0pp
60-DAY PROBABILITY · MARKET vs MODEL
MARKET
MODEL
7D 30D 60D ALL
WHAT'S DRIVING THIS
Top-weighted features in the current model fit. Direction shown vs. baseline market price;
magnitude is shapley-normalized contribution.
PythagWins pace top-3 MLB-wide
↑ 41%
Rotation injury risk index above median
↓ 33%
Postseason bullpen WAR projection
↑ 28%
Historical 100-win team WS-win rate ~17%
↓ 30%
Feature pipeline: ~140 inputs across rate-curve, options, macro prints, and platform-level liquidity.
Refit nightly at 03:30 UTC.
HONEST READ
MODEL CONFIDENCE 90% CI: 12% – 24%
BRIER (SPORTS) 0.241
VS MARKET BASELINE +0.009
RESOLVED IN CATEGORY 96
We have no statistically meaningful edge in sports yet. The displayed model price is shown for transparency, not as an opinion.
COMPARABLE HISTORICAL EVENTS
N = 3 | Date | Question | Outcome | Our model said |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | Dodgers win 2024 World Series | YES | 21% |
| 2020-10-27 | Dodgers win 2020 World Series | YES | 28% |
| 2017-11-01 | Dodgers win 2017 World Series | NO | 46% |